In the recent light of attacks committed by Iran aligned Houthis on military positions at Saudi Jizan airport, its easy to see why Saudi Arabia is not happy. The tried to mess around with a fellow Arab nation, and its fair to say, they got a little more than what they bargained for. They wanted to show off their power a little and throw their weight around. They wanted to show Iran their superiority in the Arab world. For all their troubles, Yemen is still in shambles, the government is non existent, the houthis have started attacking Saudi cities, all while Iran seems to be enjoying the show. If you are Saudi Arabia, this must sting a little. But you cant help but feel, they brought it upon themselves.
How did it all begin?
The conflict as we know today has its roots in an Arab spring uprising that forced its longtime Authoritarian leader Ali Abdullah Saleh to give up his seat of power to his smug looking deputy Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi in 2011. Well he I'm sure realized in no time that he was bargaining with the devil. He had to deal with Jihadist attacks, corruption, food insecurity, unemployment. Add to this, a security personnel still loyal to Saleh, the Houthi movement which upheld Yemens Zaidi Shia muslim minority and an incompetent committee, Hadi had the perfect recipe for a major political disaster in his hands. Hadi did not even have the support of some Sunni muslims who were against the transfer of power. By early 2015 Sanaa was completely overrun by rebels. Saleh and his forces then decided to make a comeback and this meant Hadi had to leave the country. Thus Saleh came into power, peace was restored and everyone was safe. As you may have guessed, that not quite what happened.
The real war begins
The eight major Sunni nations led by Saudi Arabia were really nervous about this development, especially since the Shia majority Iran backs the Houthis. This coalition landed and took over the port city of Aden in 2015 and restored the Hadi government, ironically without Hadi himself. This government as you can imagine was extremely incompetent. This meant that extremist groups like Al Qaeda have managed to gain some power and carry out attacks in Aden. In November 2017, a ballistic missile was launched by the Houthis towards the Saudi capital of Riyadh. The Saudis were realizing that fighting right across the border was going to be pricier than expected.
The coalition wanted to finish the war at Hudaydah with an all out assault but the United Nations warned against it.
The lives of the common
About 80% of the population needs humanitarian aid and support. Over 7500 children have been killed or maimed in Yemen in the last five and a half years. Save the children foundaton estimates that over 85000 children have died due acute malnourishment. In April 2017 a cholera outbreak meant that there are 1.49 million suspect cases and over 2960 deaths. Over 3.3 million people were displaced from their homes. The statistics do not stop there.
The petty quarrels
While the people suffer, the united opposition forces are consolidating their power, or are they? The alliance between the Houthis and Saleh ended in November 2017 after a conflict broke out on the control of a mosque in Sanaa. On 4th December, Saleh was announced to be killed.
On the other side, things aren't that different. In January 2018 a separatist movement called the Southern Transitional Council campaigned for the removal of the prime minister on account of corruption and and mismanagement.
This shouldn't have been an issue since the government is backed by the coalition. Unfortunately as the Saudis support Hadi, the UAE supports the separatists. Separatist forces tried to even take military bases and facilities belonging to the government in Aden.
My take on the issue
Confused? Well this is basically every proxy war in a nutshell. A complex map of confusing alliances and wars. Maybe if the coalition went on the offensive and finished the war in Hudayah, peace even if it costs blood, would have been achieved faster. Of course the United Nations' warning made sense. Lots of civilians have been killed by Saudi backed attacks. So a full blown assault would have led to a major humanitarian disaster. It still doesn't change the fact that as time passes, it is looking to be harder to achieve that peace. The Saudis had initially announced the war would be over in 4 weeks. 4 years hence, things are still looking bleak.
The UAE announced it would be calling back a lot of troops from Yemen. This could possibly mean that the Separatists will lose their nerve and rejoin their old ally, who they reluctantly joined in the fist place. It has to happen soon. The government isnt faultless but it is a better alternative to being ruled by the Houthis. If the war is not won soon, the Al Qaeda and Islamic state in the region will gain power. Then things will be worse. With such poverty, new recruits will be easy to find.
Conclusion
The situation in Yemen continues to be hopeless. It doesn't look like there will be any progress as the military stalemates continue. The living conditions of the citizens remain palpable. Foreign support isn't helping the situation, rather in some ways making it worse. It is a war of egos. A petty war. that is costing unbelievable no. of lives.
References:
www.bbc.co.uk
www.reuters.com
www.dw.com