The Great Pretenders #1

Oman (Geo features)

Oman sees itself as the Switzerland of the Middle East. And just like Switzerland in World War II – where they traded with both the Axis powers and the Allies (although significantly more with the Axis during the war years) – Oman insists on being on good terms with all the major players in the region. Saudi Arabia has increased its investments in Oman by 50% since 2021. Oman and UAE have signed numerous new railway, logistics, and digital transformation deals (the latest of which they have signed with the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait as part of their Vision 2040 digital transformation goals).  Oman maintains strong relations with both the United States and Iran which resulted in them hosting the Iran nuclear deal talks.

The late ruler of Oman, Sultan Qaboos prided himself in being a moderator and mediator in the region. In the earlier years of his reign, he faced a communist uprising in opposition to his rule (the Dhofar rebellion) which he put down with the help of the Iranian government at the time. This meant that the country shared a great relationship with Iran under the Pahlavi’s. However, the country is no longer under the Pahlavi regime. The new Iranian government under Ayatollah Khomeini funds and openly supports many non-state actors in the Middle East region like the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis were designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by the United States government on March 4. They have subjected the Yemeni people first hand to brutality with forced child recruitment, arbitrary detentions and systemic kidnapping of aid workers and torture of political opponents.

Oman holds a really good relationship with the United States of America as well. In 2009 the United States and Oman signed a free trade agreement which led to bilateral trade between the two countries to be worth over $3.2 billion. The Americans import industrial supplies, bauxite and aluminium, fertilizers, jewellery, plastics, and fuel oil from Oman. According to the U.S. Department of State, the latter imports vehicles, aircraft and engines, industrial engines and machines. The department leaves out other objects of trade and some other types of aircraft from its description. Namely, F-16 fighter jets and missiles. The U.S. considers Oman an important security partner in the region. At least, that was the thought process behind the approval of these weapons being sent to the country.

So, is Oman actually playing two sides within the same conflict? We have so far seen a country that intends to flex its diplomatic muscles in the region and maintains good relations with parties on different sides of regional tensions. However, Oman may also be facilitating the conflict to continue. On 24th March, Yemeni authorities intercepted 800 Chinese drone-propellers that were smuggled through the Sarfayt border crossing in Oman in Yemen’s al-Mahrah governorate. Last year, advanced military equipment including drone-support systems and radar jamming devices were intercepted in the same region at the same border crossing. In 2018, the United Nations reported that Iranian Burkan-2H missiles were smuggled into Yemen through the Omani land border, once again in the same governorate. The report also considered it possible that Oman’s transhipment ports at Salalah were being used to ship the main sections of the ER-SBRM (like the Burkan-2H missile) prior to the closure of the route. This was primarily due to only 25% of the containers being subject to a detailed inspection.

Oman denied that any weapons were smuggled across the border while Yemeni officials say that the former are not actively involved with the transfers but are turning a blind eye on the flow. Most publicly available footage of the border crossing is over a year old and they indicate a very porous border with border installations under construction and the Omani side being understaffed. The Shehen no-man’s land and entry point in Mahrah province along the Yemeni-Omani border is said to be one of the smuggling routes. The Houthi spokesperson that Oman houses in Muscat, Mohammad Abdulsalam has also played a key role in managing the Houthis’ internal and external financial network.  Regardless of whether they were guilty directly or not it is an important question to ask whether turning a blind eye makes them directly complicit in the smuggling of gold and arms to the Houthis.

Oman hosts the United States at RAFO Thumrait Base which is 218km away from the Sarfayt border (where the smuggling takes place). While there is no smoking gun evidence that Oman supports the Houthi cause, there is more and more evidence of the Omani public having an unfriendly opinion of the United States, United Kingdom and Israel due to their actions pertaining to the Palestinians in Gaza culminating in the Grand Mufti of the Sultanate of Oman, Sheikh Hamad al-Khalili welcoming the Houthis’ seizure of a cargo ship in the waters of the Red Sea. As one Omani analyst observed, Oman will be against any threats to the maritime security surrounding the Arabian Peninsula because it affects the country’s economic interests.

Is the Switzerland of the Middle East genuinely trying to foster peace in the region or is it trying to silently facilitate the Iranian Axis of Resistance while reaping the economic benefits of the Western/American-led Economic System. After all, it seems to be just a set of calculated contradictions.